{"id":1042,"date":"2022-07-20T09:40:15","date_gmt":"2022-07-20T13:40:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gbta.org\/a-deeper-dive-into-gbtas-u-s-business-travel-forecast\/"},"modified":"2022-08-11T11:33:20","modified_gmt":"2022-08-11T15:33:20","slug":"a-deeper-dive-into-gbtas-u-s-business-travel-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gbta.org\/es\/a-deeper-dive-into-gbtas-u-s-business-travel-forecast\/","title":{"rendered":"Una inmersi\u00f3n m\u00e1s profunda en el pron\u00f3stico de viajes de negocios de EE. UU. de GBTA"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>La semana pasada, la Fundaci\u00f3n GBTA <a href=\"http:\/\/blog.gbta.org\/2016\/01\/12\/u-s-business-travel-an-island-of-stability\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">public\u00f3 nuestra \u00faltima perspectiva trimestral de viajes de negocios en EE. UU.<\/a> proyectando un crecimiento de poco m\u00e1s del 3 por ciento en el gasto en viajes de negocios para 2016 y 2017. Aqu\u00ed hay tres preguntas clave que hemos estado escuchando sobre el pron\u00f3stico.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-1615\" src=\"http:\/\/blog.gbta.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/BTI_q42015_chart.png\" alt=\"BTI_q42015_chart\" width=\"891\" height=\"414\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00bfBajar\u00e1n las tarifas a\u00e9reas en 2016?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>En 2015, el crecimiento de precios fue el m\u00e1s bajo que hemos presenciado desde la Gran Recesi\u00f3n. Un d\u00f3lar m\u00e1s fuerte y la ca\u00edda en picado de los precios del petr\u00f3leo mantuvieron a raya los aumentos de precios en el sector de los viajes. Sin embargo, nuestra expectativa de crecimiento de los precios en 2016 muestra que los precios de los hoteles, los alimentos y bebidas y el transporte terrestre experimentan un repunte significativo, mientras que las tarifas a\u00e9reas contin\u00faan cayendo.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-1602\" src=\"http:\/\/blog.gbta.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/ExpectedPriceChanges2016.png\" alt=\"ExpectedPriceChanges2016\" width=\"332\" height=\"308\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Sin embargo, es importante tener en cuenta que esta es solo la tarifa base. Una vez que tenga en cuenta las tarifas, es probable que el costo total de la tarifa a\u00e9rea siga siendo m\u00e1s alto, ya que los ingresos complementarios han ido en aumento. Desde 2010, los ingresos complementarios de las aerol\u00edneas de EE. UU., solo por el equipaje facturado y las tarifas de cambio, aumentaron de $5,600 millones anuales a $6,500 millones en 2014, seg\u00fan datos del Departamento de Transporte. Ya est\u00e1 en $5.1 mil millones para los primeros tres trimestres de 2015, por lo que no parece estar desaceler\u00e1ndose.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00bfC\u00f3mo se est\u00e1n comportando los viajes en grupo?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>En 2015, los viajes en grupo superaron la actividad de viajes individuales. Sin embargo, el gasto promedio en viajes grupales disminuy\u00f3 levemente de $700 en 2014 a $694 en 2015 por viaje de negocios grupal. El crecimiento del volumen acelerar\u00e1 el ritmo durante los pr\u00f3ximos dos a\u00f1os, creciendo en el rango del 3 por ciento, pero el crecimiento del gasto permanecer\u00e1 restringido para los viajes de negocios grupales hasta 2016 antes de relajarse en 2017.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-1614\" src=\"http:\/\/blog.gbta.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/BTI_q42015_group.png\" alt=\"BTI_q42015_group\" width=\"642\" height=\"523\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00bfC\u00f3mo est\u00e1 afectando la econom\u00eda mundial a los viajes internacionales de salida?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Los viajes de negocios salientes internacionales (IOB, por sus siglas en ingl\u00e9s) contin\u00faan enfrentando vientos en contra debido a los malos fundamentos macroecon\u00f3micos globales. La escasa confianza de los consumidores y las empresas est\u00e1 frenando el crecimiento econ\u00f3mico mundial. El desempe\u00f1o rezagado y la mayor incertidumbre en Asia-Pac\u00edfico, Am\u00e9rica Latina, Medio Oriente y \u00c1frica tambi\u00e9n han restado valor al crecimiento global. Es probable que estos vientos en contra contin\u00faen desafiando el rendimiento de viajes de IOB a medida que avanzamos en 2016 y 2017.<\/p>\n<p>Se espera que el volumen total de viajes de IOB crezca un 1,9 % en 2016, seguido de un 2,3 % en 2017, acerc\u00e1ndose a 8 millones de viajes. Se proyecta que el gasto total en esos viajes crezca un 2,8 por ciento este a\u00f1o y otro 3,4 por ciento en 2017, superando los $38 mil millones.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1616\" src=\"http:\/\/blog.gbta.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/BTI_q42015_IOB-1024x510.png\" alt=\"BTI_q42015_IOB\" width=\"1024\" height=\"510\" \/><\/p>\n<p>El d\u00f3lar m\u00e1s fuerte se traduce en viajes al extranjero relativamente m\u00e1s baratos para las empresas estadounidenses, lo que reduce el gasto agregado. Sin embargo, el d\u00f3lar estadounidense m\u00e1s fuerte tiene el impacto opuesto en el volumen, ya que los costos m\u00e1s bajos para viajar al extranjero se traducen en un ROI m\u00e1s alto para las empresas estadounidenses que env\u00edan trabajadores a viajes internacionales. Si bien existe cierta presi\u00f3n competitiva a la baja por parte de esas mismas empresas, ya que es probable que experimenten un menor crecimiento de sus operaciones en el extranjero, el impacto neto de un d\u00f3lar m\u00e1s fuerte es un mejor desempe\u00f1o del volumen de IOB. A\u00fan as\u00ed, esperamos que los vientos en contra econ\u00f3micos persistan durante los pr\u00f3ximos dos a\u00f1os, ya que el crecimiento en los mercados emergentes lucha por recuperar el equilibrio y la incertidumbre econ\u00f3mica contin\u00faa maniatando a los compradores de viajes globales.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La semana pasada, la Fundaci\u00f3n GBTA public\u00f3 su \u00faltima perspectiva trimestral de viajes de negocios en EE. UU., que proyecta un crecimiento de poco m\u00e1s del 3 por ciento en el gasto en viajes de negocios para 2016 y 2017. Aqu\u00ed hay tres preguntas clave que hemos escuchado sobre el pron\u00f3stico. \u00bfBajar\u00e1n las tarifas a\u00e9reas en 2016? En 2015, el crecimiento de los precios fue el m\u00e1s bajo que hemos presenciado desde la Gran...<\/p>","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":1043,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_relevanssi_hide_post":"","_relevanssi_hide_content":"","_relevanssi_pin_for_all":"","_relevanssi_pin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_unpin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_include_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_exclude_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_no_append":"","_relevanssi_related_not_related":"","_relevanssi_related_posts":"","_relevanssi_noindex_reason":"","_kad_blocks_custom_css":"","_kad_blocks_head_custom_js":"","_kad_blocks_body_custom_js":"","_kad_blocks_footer_custom_js":"","_kad_post_transparent":"","_kad_post_title":"","_kad_post_layout":"","_kad_post_sidebar_id":"","_kad_post_content_style":"","_kad_post_vertical_padding":"","_kad_post_feature":"","_kad_post_feature_position":"","_kad_post_header":false,"_kad_post_footer":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[247,114,78,37],"tags":[399,93,48,103,95,613,564,363,257,614],"class_list":["post-1042","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-accommodations","category-airlines-and-aviation","category-ground-transportation","category-research-and-travel-trends","tag-airfares","tag-bti","tag-business-travel","tag-economy","tag-forecast","tag-group-meetings","tag-group-travel","tag-international-travel","tag-outlook","tag-rates"],"acf":[],"featured_image_src_large":["https:\/\/gbta.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/BTI_q42015_IOB-1024x510.png",1024,510,true],"author_info":{"display_name":"jcampbell","author_link":"https:\/\/gbta.org\/es\/author\/jcampbell\/"},"comment_info":"","category_info":[{"term_id":247,"name":"Accommodations","slug":"accommodations","term_group":0,"term_taxonomy_id":247,"taxonomy":"category","description":"","parent":0,"count":214,"filter":"raw","cat_ID":247,"category_count":214,"category_description":"","cat_name":"Accommodations","category_nicename":"accommodations","category_parent":0},{"term_id":114,"name":"Airlines 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