{"id":1108,"date":"2022-07-20T09:41:34","date_gmt":"2022-07-20T13:41:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gbta.org\/is-china-headed-for-its-own-lost-decade\/"},"modified":"2022-08-11T11:33:25","modified_gmt":"2022-08-11T15:33:25","slug":"is-china-headed-for-its-own-lost-decade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gbta.org\/fr\/is-china-headed-for-its-own-lost-decade\/","title":{"rendered":"La Chine se dirige-t-elle vers sa propre \u00ab\u00a0d\u00e9cennie perdue\u00a0?\u00a0\u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Comme nous l&#039;avons annonc\u00e9 r\u00e9cemment, <a href=\"http:\/\/blog.gbta.org\/2016\/04\/21\/china-overtakes-the-united-states-as-worlds-largest-business-travel-market\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">La Chine a d\u00e9pass\u00e9 les \u00c9tats-Unis en tant que premier march\u00e9 des voyages d&#039;affaires<\/a> dans le monde. C&#039;\u00e9tait l&#039;une des principales conclusions de l&#039;\u00e9tude publi\u00e9e r\u00e9cemment <em>Perspectives GBTA BTI Chine 2016 S1 <\/em>qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 parrain\u00e9 par Visa. Alors que certains verraient la Chine d\u00e9passer les \u00c9tats-Unis comme un indicateur positif pour l&#039;ensemble de l&#039;\u00e9conomie chinoise, le rapport pr\u00e9vient \u00e9galement que l&#039;\u00e9conomie chinoise continuera de ralentir par rapport aux derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es. En fait, le r\u00e9cent China BTI a demand\u00e9 si la Chine se dirigeait sur la voie de la \u00ab d\u00e9cennie perdue \u00bb des ann\u00e9es 1990 au Japon.<\/p>\n<p>Plus pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment, le rapport mentionne que les moteurs sous-jacents de la croissance \u00e9conomique \u00e0 long terme en Chine ne sont plus en mesure de soutenir des taux durables au-del\u00e0 de 10 %. La croissance de l&#039;\u00e9conomie chinoise est toutefois conforme au plan de l&#039;autorit\u00e9 centrale chinoise visant \u00e0 assurer un atterrissage en douceur \u00e0 l&#039;\u00e9conomie et devrait encore cro\u00eetre beaucoup plus rapidement que les pays d\u00e9velopp\u00e9s et les autres march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents. Un point de donn\u00e9es sur lequel les analystes pointent dans la comparaison de la \u00ab\u00a0d\u00e9cennie perdue\u00a0\u00bb est que la population en \u00e2ge de travailler en Chine a d\u00e9j\u00e0 atteint un sommet et que l&#039;expansion plus lente de la main-d&#039;\u0153uvre chinoise commencera \u00e0 ralentir la croissance. La population de pointe et vieillissante du Japon, \u00e0 titre de comparaison, a commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 devenir un d\u00e9fi en 1990 avant sa d\u00e9cennie de r\u00e9cession. Les Nations Unies estiment que la population chinoise en \u00e2ge de travailler a atteint un sommet en 2015.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-1868\" src=\"http:\/\/blog.gbta.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/China-vs-Japan.png\" alt=\"China vs Japan\" width=\"682\" height=\"498\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Parall\u00e8lement au pic de la population en \u00e2ge de travailler en Chine, les d\u00e9penses d&#039;investissement ont \u00e9galement ralenti, en partie \u00e0 cause du plan de r\u00e9\u00e9quilibrage de la Chine et en partie \u00e0 cause des forces ext\u00e9rieures du march\u00e9. La r\u00e9duction du capital devrait entra\u00eener de modestes gains de productivit\u00e9 du travail \u2013 une autre contrainte \u00e0 la croissance \u00e9conomique globale. Comme les conditions en Chine aujourd&#039;hui, le Japon a connu des gains an\u00e9miques dans les d\u00e9penses d&#039;investissement \u00e0 partir de la fin des ann\u00e9es 1980 et a \u00e9t\u00e9 l&#039;un des principaux moteurs de la \u00ab\u00a0d\u00e9cennie perdue\u00a0\u00bb.<\/p>\n<p>De m\u00eame, le Japon de la fin des ann\u00e9es 1980 et des ann\u00e9es 1990 et la Chine d&#039;aujourd&#039;hui soutiennent des entreprises et des industries en difficult\u00e9 qui n&#039;\u00e9taient plus comp\u00e9titives sur le march\u00e9 mondial.<\/p>\n<p>Cependant, il y a beaucoup plus de diff\u00e9rences qu&#039;il y a de similitudes entre la \u00ab\u00a0d\u00e9cennie perdue\u00a0\u00bb du Japon et la Chine d&#039;aujourd&#039;hui. Les diff\u00e9rences entre les perspectives \u00e9conomiques des deux pays sugg\u00e8rent que la Chine pourra continuer avec une croissance au moins mod\u00e9r\u00e9e alors que le Japon a stagn\u00e9 pendant plus d&#039;une d\u00e9cennie, notamment l&#039;augmentation continue des voyages d&#039;affaires dans toute la Chine.<\/p>\n<p>D&#039;autres diff\u00e9rences cl\u00e9s entre le Japon des ann\u00e9es 1990 et la Chine d&#039;aujourd&#039;hui sont que la croissance de la Chine est actuellement plus de trois fois sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 celle du Japon dans les ann\u00e9es 1990. De plus, la Chine et le Japon se trouvent \u00e0 des stades de d\u00e9veloppement \u00e9conomique tr\u00e8s diff\u00e9rents. Le Japon \u00e9tait \u00e0 un stade beaucoup plus avanc\u00e9 dans les ann\u00e9es 1980 et 1990 que la Chine aujourd&#039;hui. La Chine a donc beaucoup plus de latitude pour adopter des technologies \u00e9trang\u00e8res plus avanc\u00e9es pour aider \u00e0 combler l&#039;\u00e9cart de productivit\u00e9, une option qu&#039;un Japon plus avanc\u00e9 n&#039;avait pas \u00e0 l&#039;\u00e9poque. Enfin, alors que la population en \u00e2ge de travailler en Chine a peut-\u00eatre atteint un sommet, il existe toujours une migration importante des zones rurales vers les zones urbaines du pays qui contribuera \u00e0 maintenir les gains de productivit\u00e9.<\/p>\n<p>Dans l&#039;ensemble, bien qu&#039;il puisse y avoir des similitudes entre le Japon de son \u00e9poque de la &quot;d\u00e9cennie perdue&quot; et la Chine d&#039;aujourd&#039;hui, les diff\u00e9rences \u00e9conomiques entre les deux l&#039;emporteront. La Chine continuera probablement de cro\u00eetre \u2013 bien qu&#039;\u00e0 un rythme plus lent que les ann\u00e9es pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes \u2013 et sera en mesure de mieux r\u00e9sister \u00e0 l&#039;\u00e9volution des conditions \u00e9conomiques que le Japon.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Comme nous l&#039;avons r\u00e9cemment annonc\u00e9, la Chine a d\u00e9pass\u00e9 les \u00c9tats-Unis en tant que premier march\u00e9 mondial des voyages d&#039;affaires. C&#039;\u00e9tait l&#039;une des principales conclusions du r\u00e9cent GBTA BTI Outlook China 2016 H1, sponsoris\u00e9 par Visa. Alors que certains verraient la Chine d\u00e9passer les \u00c9tats-Unis comme un indicateur positif pour l&#039;ensemble\u2026<\/p>","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":1109,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_relevanssi_hide_post":"","_relevanssi_hide_content":"","_relevanssi_pin_for_all":"","_relevanssi_pin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_unpin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_include_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_exclude_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_no_append":"","_relevanssi_related_not_related":"","_relevanssi_related_posts":"","_relevanssi_noindex_reason":"","_kad_blocks_custom_css":"","_kad_blocks_head_custom_js":"","_kad_blocks_body_custom_js":"","_kad_blocks_footer_custom_js":"","_kad_post_transparent":"","_kad_post_title":"","_kad_post_layout":"","_kad_post_sidebar_id":"","_kad_post_content_style":"","_kad_post_vertical_padding":"","_kad_post_feature":"","_kad_post_feature_position":"","_kad_post_header":false,"_kad_post_footer":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[93,94,48,102,103,95,705,257],"class_list":["post-1108","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-research-and-travel-trends","tag-bti","tag-bti-outlook","tag-business-travel","tag-china","tag-economy","tag-forecast","tag-japan","tag-outlook"],"acf":[],"featured_image_src_large":["https:\/\/gbta.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/Shanghai-Buildings-1024x682.jpg",1024,682,true],"author_info":{"display_name":"jcampbell","author_link":"https:\/\/gbta.org\/fr\/author\/jcampbell\/"},"comment_info":"","category_info":[{"term_id":37,"name":"Research and Travel Trends","slug":"research-and-travel-trends","term_group":0,"term_taxonomy_id":37,"taxonomy":"category","description":"","parent":0,"count":966,"filter":"raw","cat_ID":37,"category_count":966,"category_description":"","cat_name":"Research and Travel Trends","category_nicename":"research-and-travel-trends","category_parent":0}],"tag_info":[{"term_id":93,"name":"BTI","slug":"bti","term_group":0,"term_taxonomy_id":93,"taxonomy":"post_tag","description":"","parent":0,"count":35,"filter":"raw"},{"term_id":94,"name":"BTI Outlook","slug":"bti-outlook","term_group":0,"term_taxonomy_id":94,"taxonomy":"post_tag","description":"","parent":0,"count":21,"filter":"raw"},{"term_id":48,"name":"business travel","slug":"business-travel","term_group":0,"term_taxonomy_id":48,"taxonomy":"post_tag","description":"","parent":0,"count":416,"filter":"raw"},{"term_id":102,"name":"China","slug":"china","term_group":0,"term_taxonomy_id":102,"taxonomy":"post_tag","description":"","parent":0,"count":19,"filter":"raw"},{"term_id":103,"name":"economy","slug":"economy","term_group":0,"term_taxonomy_id":103,"taxonomy":"post_tag","description":"","parent":0,"count":81,"filter":"raw"},{"term_id":95,"name":"forecast","slug":"forecast","term_group":0,"term_taxonomy_id":95,"taxonomy":"post_tag","description":"","parent":0,"count":55,"filter":"raw"},{"term_id":705,"name":"Japan","slug":"japan","term_group":0,"term_taxonomy_id":705,"taxonomy":"post_tag","description":"","parent":0,"count":1,"filter":"raw"},{"term_id":257,"name":"outlook","slug":"outlook","term_group":0,"term_taxonomy_id":257,"taxonomy":"post_tag","description":"","parent":0,"count":19,"filter":"raw"}],"taxonomy_info":{"category":[{"value":37,"label":"Research and Travel Trends"}],"post_tag":[{"value":93,"label":"BTI"},{"value":94,"label":"BTI Outlook"},{"value":48,"label":"business travel"},{"value":102,"label":"China"},{"value":103,"label":"economy"},{"value":95,"label":"forecast"},{"value":705,"label":"Japan"},{"value":257,"label":"outlook"}]},"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/gbta.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/Shanghai-Buildings.jpg","featured_image_src_square":"https:\/\/gbta.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/Shanghai-Buildings.jpg","mfb_rest_fields":["featured_image_src_large","author_info","comment_info","category_info","tag_info","taxonomy_info","featured_image_src","featured_image_src_square"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/gbta.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1108","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/gbta.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/gbta.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gbta.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/25"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gbta.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1108"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/gbta.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1108\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gbta.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1109"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/gbta.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1108"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gbta.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1108"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gbta.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1108"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}