What Do the European Election Results Mean for Business Travel?

Since the last European election in 2019, business travel has undergone significant transformations. By interrupting travel, the Covid-19 pandemic brought to light the sector’s crucial benefits to our societies, including connecting people from different backgrounds and a substantial contribution to economic growth. Now that it is on the road to recovery, efforts are being deployed to anticipate what the future of the sector will look like in terms of sustainability and passenger experience.  

GBTA has been at the forefront of discussions with European decision-makers to ensure that the right framework is put in place for business travel to fully deliver its benefits to Europe’s economy and society. Our purpose is to advocate for the adoption of policies that support safe, efficient, and sustainable business travel. With the European elections behind us, we’re looking at what the results could mean for business travel, how we expect policymakers to focus their efforts in the next five years, and what that means for ongoing legislation intended to keep Europeans connected.

Election results

On 6-9 June, citizens in all 27 Member States of the European Union voted to elect their representatives to the European Parliament. Participation increased slightly (+0.5%) from the 2019 ballot. While not showing a dramatic upturn, it is nonetheless encouraging that turnout did not drop, especially considering the sharp decline in voter interest experienced up until 2019.

The results have yielded a European Parliament which is – once again – likely to be controlled by a broad alliance of centrist parties. The biggest winners in this centrist alliance are the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP;189 seats, 13 gained), while its centrist rivals all lost seats. The biggest losers were the liberal Renew Europe (74 seats, 28 lost) and the Greens (51 seats, 20 lost), with the centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D) coming in a strong second (136 seats, 3 lost).

The liberal and green losses largely benefitted hard- and far-right parties, who were riding a wave of popularity in several Member States but have nonetheless been kept out of any coalition talks thus far. For all the talk of a potential extremist landslide which marked the leadup to the elections, the traditional broad centrist alliance – led by incumbent Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s EPP – has the highest chance of having its say in nominating the next European Commission and influencing its general direction for the next five years, most likely in a more right-ward direction given the overall composition of the hemicycle.

National impact

The biggest fallout of the elections has been felt in the national capitals. While some large Member States’ governments have been bolstered with positive feedback from their voters (Italy, Poland, Romania), it’s a different story for others. In Germany, the governing Social Democratic Party (SPD) recorded its worst results in history, calling Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s capacity to govern into question. However, the repercussions have been felt most in France, where President Macron called a snap legislative election in reaction to a crushing win by Marine Le Pen’s far-right party, Rassemblement National. While the French election is very unlikely to have any impact on the nomination of the new Commission President, political instability in one of the EU’s largest and most influential Member States could lead to complications at the European level in years to come.

Green gone?

The 2019-24 mandate of the European Parliament and European Commission was marked by a marked shift towards emphasising sustainability in all areas, in an overall roadmap called the Green Deal. This roadmap produced several universal and sector-specific pieces of legislation intended to promote sustainability across the European economy. However, in the final months of the parliament, a marked shift in narrative took place. While farming groups made their discontent heard  in Brussels, a cross-sectoral set of industrial stakeholders started promoting the notion that Europe needs to fix its focus towards competitiveness.

This culminated in the Antwerp Declaration (at time of writing signed by over 1200 organisations) which explicitly called upon the European Institutions for a ‘European Industrial Deal’ and to focus on keeping Europe competitive in a more uncertain geopolitical context. While these arguments did find their way into campaign messaging and televised debates, their real-world impact remains to be determined. The question nonetheless remains: in light of this shift in narrative and the election results, what will happen to the EU’s green ambitions?

With the Greens losing so many seats, the initial reaction might be to assume that ‘green is out’, however that would be a mistake for two key reasons. The first is that many key pieces of green legislation the European Institutions set out to put in place have already been adopted and are due to be implemented in the years to come. The second is that we are seeing a ‘mainstreaming’ of environmental and sustainability of issues within political parties, with references to green policies present in nearly all campaign manifestos. While debates for future legislation will certainly be impacted by the Greens’ and the Liberals’ losses during this election, the European Union is very likely to stay on course towards becoming a more sustainable and environmentally conscious economy.

What this means for business travel

In terms of future legislative files, we can expect debates to be more polarised than in the previous mandate, especially given that the European Parliament now leans more right-wing than during the previous mandate. For business travel, this will mean having to reach out to a wider audience of policymakers to explain the value the sector brings to the European economy, and the direction the sector is pulling towards, namely: making sure that travel is contributing to climate action, that infrastructure stays robust, and that travellers can move safely and efficiently.

In terms of legislation leftover from the previous parliament, there are two key pieces to watch once the new Parliament is properly formed. Firstly, CountEmissionsEU, which aims to harmonise the methodology for counting greenhouse gas emissions of transport services across different modes of transport. The Parliament and the EU Council (representing Member States’ governments) have already adopted their positions on this proposal and ‘trilogue’ negotiations with the Commission are due to start this autumn, when the new Parliament has decided on its internal organisation.

Secondly, the Passenger Rights Package, which aims to improve the passenger experience in Europe, especially regarding reimbursement for cancelled trips and access to travel information. The legislative proposals were presented by the Commission in late 2023, leaving little time to work on them before the election. The Parliament and Council have yet to adopt their positions.

Finally, the outgoing Commission also intended to introduce a proposal on Multimodal Digital Mobility Services, which would provide a clear legal framework for multimodal trip offers. Legal challenges and mixed reactions from stakeholders in the last parliament prevented the Commission from presenting a proposal. This is an area which would heavily benefit passengers, buyers, and the environment but it will require investing some effort to encourage policymakers to make progress on it in the next five years.

These files speak to GBTA’s Policy Priorities for the 2024-29 legislative mandate at the EU level, in which we call for policymakers to focus on facilitating traveller mobility, promoting sustainable business travel, and modernizing the travel distribution ecosystem. GBTA remains committed to working with European policymakers to advise on how the sector can continue to bring Europeans together for work, commerce and diplomacy while achieving the EU’s ambitious plans for the green transition and keeping the bloc competitive in the current geopolitical climate.