Global Business Travel Continues but Confidence Drops Sharply as Conflict, Costs and Complexity Reshape the 2026 Outlook

Global business travel is continuing at a steady pace into 2026, but with significantly more caution, less confidence and moreoperational complexity than at the beginning of the year. Organizations are still pressing forward with trips, spending and meetings, yet are doing so amid escalating conflicts, higher costs and growing disruption. The shift can be seen across regions but is most pronounced in Europe, where industry pessimism now outweighs optimism as broader geopolitical conflicts are increasingly shaping travel routes, safety considerations, and meetings decisions worldwide. In parallel, the travel manager role is increasingly strategic, including leveraging AI as a key enabler of smarter decisions and stronger organizational impact.

This is according to descobertas divulgadas today by the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) from its April business travel industry sentiment poll reflecting perspectives from over 500 corporate travel managers, travel suppliers and intermediaries worldwide. Results broadly show a more cautious outlook compared with GBTA’s January poll, with organizations actively adjusting why and how they are traveling for work now.

“What we’re seeing is not a broad pullback from business travel, but a more deliberate and carefully managed approach to it. Organizations continue to travel and meet – and innovate – but they’re doing so while adapting to rising costs, operational friction and escalating geopolitical tensions,” said Suzanne Neufang, Chief Executive Officer of GBTA.

“These pressures are reshaping how, where and why companies are traveling now—making experienced business travel professionals more critical than ever to keeping travelers safe, navigating risk and disruption, and controlling budgets so organizations and people can continue to connect and do business.”

Risks and Regional Impacts: Geopolitical Tensions Now the Dominant Concern

Geopolitical instability has become the most significant external risk influencing business travel decisions in 2026, according to April poll respondents.

• Por pouco eight in ten respondents (79%) now cite geopolitical instability and conflict como um top travel-related risk, making it the industry’s leading concern globally.
• The impact is especially visible in Europa, where more than 9 in 10 respondents (92%) identify geopolitics as a primary risk, compared with 72% in North America.

Current geopolitical conflicts, including tensions involving Iran and the Middle East, are having tangible impacts on industry outlook and operations:

• 76% of compradores say geopolitical conflicts are having a moderate or significant impact on their organization’s business travel and meetings decisions.
• Travel suppliers report even greater impact, with more than four in five (83%) indicating these conflicts are materially affecting their customers.
• Organizations report real-world consequences, including route and itinerary changes (50%), suspension of all travel to/within the region (50%), and re-evaluation of duty of care policies (36%).
  

Outlook and Optimism: Confidence Drops Since January, Especially in Europe

Geral industry optimism tem weakened considerably since the start of the year.

• Apenas 41% of all global respondents say they are optimistic about the business travel industry in 2026, down from 59% in January.
• At the same time, the share expressing pessimism has nearly tripled, rising from 9% in January to 24% of respondents in April, likely reflecting the heightened exposure to geopolitical instability, travel affordability pressures and overall disruption.

This erosion in sentiment is evident across both travel buyers and suppliers.

• Buyer optimism fell from nearly six in ten in January (59%) to fewer than four in ten (39%) in April, while supplier optimism fell from more than half (57%) to just over four in ten (45%).

Regionally, Europe now stands as the only region where pessimism outweighs optimism in terms of the year-ahead outlook.

• Optimism among European respondents was relatively strong in January (58% optimistic versus 14% pessimistic), but fell significantly by April, with just 21% now optimistic and pessimism rising to 38%.
• In contrast, América do Norte remains net positive ─59% optimistic and 9% pessimistic in January ─ but optimism materially declined by April, with 45% optimistic and 19% pessimistic.

In terms of outlook for 2026, increasingly widespread concerns cited by all respondents include the affordability of business travel (82%, vs. 70% in January) and employee safety when they are traveling (67%, vs. 56%).

Spending, Volume, and Revenue: Business Travel Continues, but Downside Risk Grows

Despite the weakening outlook, business travel activity is expected to continue through 2026, but expectations have softened meaningfully since January.

Business travel volume:

• Among buyers, 28% now expect volume to decline in 2026, a significant shift from 16% in January, signaling growing downside risk.
• 30% expect the number of business trips taken at their organization to aumentar in 2026, down from 35% in January, while 41% anticipate their year-over-year volume to remain unchanged.

Business travel spending:

• Expectations for spending remain comparatively stronger, driven by cost pressures. 43% of buyers expect travel spending to increase, similar to January levels.
• 22% now expect spending to decline, up from just 13% at the start of the year.

Business travel supplier revenue:

• Travel suppliers are becoming more cautious in their outlook as well. Just 35% expect travel-related revenue to aumentar, down from 47% in January, while the share expecting revenue to decline tem risen sharply since the beginning of the year (27% now vs. 7%). This reflects a more support-intensive and cost-constrained operating environment.
  

Meetings and Events: Strategies Adjust Under Pressure but In-Person Value Holds

Geopolitical risk and cross-border complexity are not only affecting individual trips but also reshaping meetings and events planning.

• Over a third of buyers (38%) say they’re less likely to host multinational meetings in the U.S. than they were six months ago.
• More than half of buyers (56%) say their organization has changed its meetings or events strategy in the past three months. This includes shifting some meetings or events to virtual formats (26%), canceling meetings or events (24%), reducing employee event attendance (24%), and relocating meetings to different markets (22%).
• European buyers (33%) are significantly more likely than those in North America (21%) to shift meetings or events to virtual formats, underscoring a higher level of disruption sensitivity.

At the same time, travel buyers emphasize that certain gatherings remain difficult to replace.

• Sales and client meetings (53%) and conferences or trade shows (51%) are cited as the hardest in-person activities to shift to virtual alternatives—rising to 63% among European buyers for conferences and trade shows.
  

Travel Management’s Role: More Essential Than Ever, More Strategic by Need

As disruption and evolution intensifies, the role of travel management and travel professionals is becoming increasingly strategic.

• Seven in ten buyers (70%) say the travel management function becomes more important during periods of disruption, with responsibilities moving closer to leadership, risk management, and enterprise decision-making.
• Many report increased involvement in traveler safety, policy changes, crisis response, and meetings decision-making.
• Regardless of region, by far travel buyers (92%) are confident their organization can effectively support their travelers during a major disruption.
• Artificial intelligence is becoming one of the clearest tools buyers see for operating more strategically. More than two in five buyers (41%) say their organization is proactively implementing AI use cases while another 28% are leveraging AI embedded in existing travel tools.
• Buyers view AI as a critical enabler and they are prioritizing building AI and automation skills (37%) to drive better reporting, pricing insight, spend forecasting, and more informed decision-making and voicing their biggest barrier as data/privacy/security concerns (47%).

For more details and to access the full April 2026 GBTA poll results, visit the GBTA Research web page.

Metodologia
The GBTA poll was conducted online from March 25-April 8, 2026, and drew responses from 539 GBTA members and non-members across North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East. Respondents represented organizations with global, regional, and market-level responsibilities, and a wide range of business travel spending profiles.

Para mais informações visite Pesquisa GBTA online or contact research@gbta.org.